02_Pickup预订速度追踪表.xlsx
02 · Pickup 预订速度追踪表 | 使用说明
Pickup 是唯一能提前看到未来的指标:今天的在手,就是 30 天后的结果。
一、用途
用于《法典》表 M 07:50 节点「抓取未来 30 天在手 + Pickup」,以及表 I 的窗口分档监控。
「Pickup追踪」页是核心矩阵:行=提前天数档,列=目标入住日,格子里填累计在手房晚。
「去年同期对照」页结构完全相同,填去年数据做基准(本模板留空,学员可用 data/03 数据集填写)。
「预测计算」页把在手与去年对照代入公式,自动算 Pickup 偏差、预测 OCC,并按表 I 判窗口、比阈值、出动作。
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二、填色规则
—输入区浅黄底 + 边框由学员填写,例如日期、房晚、价格
—公式区白底 + 边框已预置 Excel 公式,改动会导致结果错误,请勿手改
—参考区灰底 + 斜体SPEC 固定参数/判定表,一般不需要改动
—标题行深蓝底白字字段名,冻结在首行
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三、字段字典
列字段名称类型口径 / 预置公式说明
第 3 行目标入住日输入—30 列,快照日之后的连续 30 天
A 列提前天数档参考60/45/30/21/14/7/3/1/0行维度=预订窗口
C:AF累计在手房晚输入—该档时点上,该目标日已收到的累计房晚
增量区档间 Pickup 增量公式=本档 − 上一档负值=净取消(绿色)
HPickup 偏差%公式#NAME?正值=领先(红色)
I预测最终房晚公式#NAME?本模板采用「同比增速外推法」
K预测 OCC公式#NAME?—
D窗口分档公式按提前天数嵌套 IF 判档《法典》表 I 六档
P落后幅度%公式#NAME?正值=落后
Q是否触发公式0-3 档看 OCC<70%,其余档比阈值数值—
R触发动作公式VLOOKUP 表 I 第 4 列触发即输出,未触发显示「—」
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四、使用步骤
1在「Pickup追踪」页第 3 行填 30 个目标入住日(快照日之后连续 30 天)。
2按当日实际,把每个目标日在各提前天数档上的累计在手房晚填入黄底格。
3在「去年同期对照」页用同样的结构填入去年的对应数据(留空则预测计算会显示空白)。
4打开「预测计算」页:目标日、当前在手会自动引用「Pickup追踪」页,无需手填。
5读「是否触发」列:红色=触发,须按「触发动作」列执行;执行后写入 04 号《调价台账》。
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五、关联《收益管理操作法典》
表 I · 预订窗口分档监控表 —— 已内嵌在「预测计算」页第 36–42 行作为查找表。
表 A · 每日价格调整判定表 —— 预测 OCC 与 Pickup 偏差算出后,直接查表 A 得调价幅度。
表 M · 07:50 节点要求 20 分钟内完成本表更新。
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杭州滨江云璟酒店 · 320 间房 · 中高端全服务 | 酒店收益管理学院 HRMA | 口径以 SPEC.md 为准
Pickup 预订速度追踪矩阵(本年)
行=提前天数档,列=目标入住日,单元格=该档时点的累计在手房晚。黄底为输入,白底为公式。
提前天数档《法典》表 I 窗口2026-03-01 00:00:002026-03-02 00:00:002026-03-03 00:00:002026-03-04 00:00:002026-03-05 00:00:002026-03-06 00:00:002026-03-07 00:00:002026-03-08 00:00:002026-03-09 00:00:002026-03-10 00:00:002026-03-11 00:00:002026-03-12 00:00:002026-03-13 00:00:002026-03-14 00:00:002026-03-15 00:00:002026-03-16 00:00:002026-03-17 00:00:002026-03-18 00:00:002026-03-19 00:00:002026-03-20 00:00:002026-03-21 00:00:002026-03-22 00:00:002026-03-23 00:00:002026-03-24 00:00:002026-03-25 00:00:002026-03-26 00:00:002026-03-27 00:00:002026-03-28 00:00:002026-03-29 00:00:002026-03-30 00:00:00
60 天档31–60 天窗口373944424547384038434047514137434240485138444237384945424140
45 天档31–60 天窗口606060588076616760596073735865646662767967596059647870626567
30 天档15–30 天窗口10297971091181149595959510912212894109103106105118116103101108102107126115103109106
21 天档15–30 天窗口130124132138164146127139134128139149164141137131127120167146138123140137120156163136139120
14 天档8–14 天窗口173151170161183184160149153166172195206175155149171152192188148164165156173184184152166170
7 天档4–7 天窗口206189177190215238187205202209209229226206202186191204235218202192178185199222226179198182
3 天档0–3 天窗口208208224216235248194196218226191241233212218208191216258247191218201220205253268226209195
1 天档0–3 天窗口232220207234276267232203231202201274277225201234215210271252229214217210225272264214215223
到达日0–3 天窗口233212217216275285206216236231212274259243221207241225272278226232211239214269278239219227
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各档间 Pickup 增量(自动生成 · 白底勿改)——————————————————————————————
60 天档31–60 天窗口——————————————————————————————
45 天档31–60 天窗口232116163529232722162026221728212422282829151822262925202427
30 天档15–30 天窗口423737513838342835364949553644394043423736424843434845414439
21 天档15–30 天窗口282735294632324439333027364728282115493035223235133048333014
14 天档8–14 天窗口432738231938331019383346423418184432254210412519532821162750
7 天档4–7 天窗口33387293254275649433734203147372052433054281329263842273212
3 天档0–3 天窗口219472620107-91617-18127616220122329-1126233563142471113
1 天档0–3 天窗口2412-1718411938713-2410334413-172624-613538-416-102019-4-12628
到达日0–3 天窗口1-810-18-118-2613529110-181820-272615126-318-629-11-3142544
Pickup 预订速度追踪矩阵(去年同期 · 对照用)
行=提前天数档,列=目标入住日,单元格=该档时点的累计在手房晚。黄底为输入,白底为公式。
提前天数档《法典》表 I 窗口2026-03-01 00:00:002026-03-02 00:00:002026-03-03 00:00:002026-03-04 00:00:002026-03-05 00:00:002026-03-06 00:00:002026-03-07 00:00:002026-03-08 00:00:002026-03-09 00:00:002026-03-10 00:00:002026-03-11 00:00:002026-03-12 00:00:002026-03-13 00:00:002026-03-14 00:00:002026-03-15 00:00:002026-03-16 00:00:002026-03-17 00:00:002026-03-18 00:00:002026-03-19 00:00:002026-03-20 00:00:002026-03-21 00:00:002026-03-22 00:00:002026-03-23 00:00:002026-03-24 00:00:002026-03-25 00:00:002026-03-26 00:00:002026-03-27 00:00:002026-03-28 00:00:002026-03-29 00:00:002026-03-30 00:00:00
60 天档31–60 天窗口——————————————————————————————
45 天档31–60 天窗口——————————————————————————————
30 天档15–30 天窗口——————————————————————————————
21 天档15–30 天窗口——————————————————————————————
14 天档8–14 天窗口——————————————————————————————
7 天档4–7 天窗口——————————————————————————————
3 天档0–3 天窗口——————————————————————————————
1 天档0–3 天窗口——————————————————————————————
到达日0–3 天窗口——————————————————————————————
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各档间 Pickup 增量(自动生成 · 白底勿改)——————————————————————————————
60 天档31–60 天窗口——————————————————————————————
45 天档31–60 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
30 天档15–30 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
21 天档15–30 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
14 天档8–14 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
7 天档4–7 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
3 天档0–3 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
1 天档0–3 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
到达日0–3 天窗口000000000000000000000000000000
Pickup 预测计算(目标日维度)
输入:当前在手、去年同窗口在手、去年同期最终房晚。输出:Pickup 偏差、预测 OCC,并按《法典》表 I 自动判窗口、比阈值、出动作。
目标日星期提前 天数窗口分档 (表I)当前在手 房晚去年同窗口 在手去年同期 最终房晚Pickup 偏差%预测最终 房晚可售 房晚预测 OCC目标 OCC差距 (pp)监控频率落后触发 阈值落后幅度 %是否触发触发动作
46082=IF($A4="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A4,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))89>60天23300——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46083=IF($A5="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A5,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))88>60天21200——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46084=IF($A6="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A6,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))87>60天21700——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46085=IF($A7="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A7,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))86>60天21600——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46086=IF($A8="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A8,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))85>60天27500——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46087=IF($A9="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A9,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))84>60天28500——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46088=IF($A10="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A10,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))83>60天20600——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46089=IF($A11="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A11,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))82>60天21600——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46090=IF($A12="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A12,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))81>60天23600——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46091=IF($A13="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A13,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))80>60天23100——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46092=IF($A14="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A14,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))79>60天21200——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46093=IF($A15="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A15,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))78>60天27400——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46094=IF($A16="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A16,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))77>60天25900——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46095=IF($A17="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A17,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))76>60天24300——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46096=IF($A18="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A18,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))75>60天22100——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46097=IF($A19="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A19,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))74>60天20700——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46098=IF($A20="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A20,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))73>60天24100——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46099=IF($A21="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A21,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))72>60天22500——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46100=IF($A22="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A22,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))71>60天27200——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46101=IF($A23="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A23,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))70>60天27800——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46102=IF($A24="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A24,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))69>60天22600——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46103=IF($A25="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A25,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))68>60天23200——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46104=IF($A26="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A26,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))67>60天21100——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46105=IF($A27="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A27,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))66>60天23900——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46106=IF($A28="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A28,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))65>60天21400——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46107=IF($A29="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A29,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))64>60天26900——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46108=IF($A30="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A30,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))63>60天27800——320—88.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46109=IF($A31="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A31,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))62>60天23900——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46110=IF($A32="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A32,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))61>60天21900——320—78.0%—每月1次落后30%—触发上报L3,调整年度策略
46111=IF($A33="","",CHOOSE(WEEKDAY(A33,2),"周一","周二","周三","周四","周五","周六","周日"))6031-60天22700——320—78.0%—每周1次落后25%—触发启动协议客户拜访计划
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《法典》表 I · 预订窗口分档监控表(参考区,勿改)—————————————————
窗口分档监控频率落后触发阈值触发动作阈值数值—————————————
0-3天每日2次(10:00/17:00)OCC<70%上「今日特惠」尾房产品——————————————
4-7天每日1次落后10%启动48h闪购10.0%—————————————
8-14天每日1次落后15%执行表A调价15.0%—————————————
15-30天每周2次落后20%策略复盘+销售动员20.0%—————————————
31-60天每周1次落后25%启动协议客户拜访计划25.0%—————————————
>60天每月1次落后30%上报L3,调整年度策略30.0%—————————————
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